Wednesday, February 25, 2009

26.2.2009 Outlook


"Nifty continues to be in sell mode as far as short term charts are concerned. Break below 2660 will set fresh bearish targets of 2300-2200 which may be achieved in coming weeks but hourly charts are making a bullish pattern having resistance at 2750, breakout from where will initiate further recovery to 2825-2850". Nifty opened with a gap of nearly 40 points since most of the World markets had appreciated substantially & Asian markets were also trading in positive zone. Nifty has given bullish breakout for target of 2825+ provided it remains above 2735. Nifty touched an intra day high of 2789 before profit taking reduced the gains & Nifty managed to close at 2762, about 28 points above the previous close.
As far as, short term charts are concerned, Nifty is still above the support level of 2735 where it will cover the opening gap of 25th Feb also. On bullish side, Nifty is likely to face resistance between 2806 & 2839. Since indications are mixed, one need to be very cautious in long positions due to expected volatility on F&O clearing. More over many important stocks have achieved their recovery targets & they are now looking for a negative trigger for southward journey. Stocks like Reliance, Tata Steel, DLF, SAIL, Rel. Capital are capable of bringing down the market in coming weeks.As for as bar reversal in Daily charts are concerned, stocks like ITC, HCL infosys, EKC, Can Bank and Eid parry have given "Upward Bar Reversal" while DLF, L&T, R Comm, Unitech, Hero Honda, HDIL, Power Grid, ACC and Ranbaxy etc. have given "Downward Bar Reversal". Stocks like HCL infosys, MRO-TEK, Amtek auto and Akruti City have shown spurt during the day with unusually high volumes.Sector wise, stocks like Century, M&M, Tata Motors, Siemens, TCS, Satyam, NDTV, Wipro, Infosys etc. lifted the indices as all the stocks closed in positive territory where as stocks like HDFC Ltd., Ranbaxy, DLF, L&T, HPCL, GE Shipping etc. failed to close in green. As far as, A/D data is concerned it was slightly in favor of bulls in the ratio of 12:11 with 557 declines & 605 advances during the day.
In nutshell, though Nifty is trading above the support of 2735 & capable of touching 2806-2835 but the momentum is missing in the up trend which means the present recovery is a temporary phase & Nifty is likely to start its downward journey very soon. Close below 2660 will open highly bearish targets of 2300-2200. On the bullish side, decisive close above 2883 may negate the bearish outlook in short term. The best strategy should to be concentrate on long as well as short side for next 1-3 days since trend appears to be mixed & volatile.

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