Thursday, March 5, 2009

6.3.2009 Outlook


As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty is still in oversold zones & further recovery to 2690-2695 is indicated on the charts. On the other hand, move below 2610 may accelerate the decline towards 2500 & below.". Nifty, contrary to the positive news on interest rate cut, positive global markets opened on a flat note & it recovered to touch an intra day high of 2663 but failed to sustain these levels for a minute even & immediately crashed to enter in negative zone after breaking support of 2620. The breakout had set a target of 2550 of Nifty future which was also achieved during the day. Nifty bounced back from the levels of 2564 & closed at 2576, about 68 points below the previous close.As far as, short term charts are concerned, Nifty is making lower tops & lower bottoms near very crucial support of 2550, breakout from where will set another target of 2450 & below which may be achieved soon. On the bullish side, move above 2805 will negate the bearish outlook. Since most of the important index stocks like Reliance, SBI, ICICI Bank are either bearish or on the verge of giving bearish breakout in EST charts.As for as bar reversal in Daily charts are concerned, stocks like Akruti, JP Associates, Titan, Voltas, Dabur, Rajesh Export, have given "Upward Bar Reversal" while Reliance, ONGC, REL Infra, Educomp, HDFC Bank, Rel Cap, L&T, NTPC have given "Downward Bar Reversal". Stocks like Berger Paint, Pyramid, Hind Motors, Patni comp, Hind Zinc, Videocon, Piramal have shown spurt during the day with unusually high volumes.Sector wise, select few stocks like Akruti, Voltas, JP Associates, Sun pharma & Titan, LITL, etc. managed to close in positive zone where as stocks like Everonn, Ranbaxy, Aban Offshore, Satyam, most of the banking stocks managed to close in positive territory. As far as, A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bears in the ratio of 3:1 with 894 declines & 280 advances during the day.
In nutshell, Nifty is making lower bottoms & lower tops & the support of 2565-2550 is an important landmark, break from this support can wipe off 100 points where as Nifty likely to recover to 2620-2675 if the support of 2550 is held. The best strategy should to concentrate on oversold banking stocks which are ripe for technical recovery in coming sessions.

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